In a further sign that the presidential campaign may be beginning, the president will visit three north-eastern states, shortly after detailing her legislative agenda for 2013.

In each of the past six months, inflation figures have exceeded expectations. The market still seems to be giving the central bank another chance.

Ever since Petrobras embarked on its controversial capital-raising exercise of 2010 a sense of malaise has surrounded the state-controlled oil company’s relations with investors. The company’s operating performance has been sluggish at best and its shares have sunk so badly that they contributed in large part to the dreadful recent performance of the broader equity market.

Local commentators have debated the significance of a televised address by President Dilma Rousseff, in which she defended the government's record on electricity tariffs and belittled opponents.

Growth forecasts continue to decline, with uncertainty as to whether the exchange rate will become a more active part of policy

The central bank has reiterated its tougher stance on inflation, supporting our view that the authorities are unlikely to risk additional rate cuts ahead of next year’s elections

Inflows topped $5bn in December, supporting our view that corporate investors have not been deterred by weakening growth

Disbursements by the development bank rose nearly 30% YoY, raising expectations that the fall in investment may be over