The downward trend in growth forecasts continues but FDI forecasts are still stable.
Growth Trends
The oil paradox
The slump in the fortunes of OGX and other independent Brazilian oil companies has been one of the most dramatic features of Brazil’s stock market decline. So it might seem like an odd time to highlight the attractions of the oil sector.
In limbo
Over the last few months as Brazil’s economic recovery has struggled to gain momentum, policymakers have at least been able to rely on the spending power of the consumer. Now it seems that spending is coming under serious pressure.
The recovery looks delicate but definite
Economic activity increased 1.2% in December from a year earlier, confirming expectations of a weak rebound.
FDI completes strong 2012
Inflows topped $5bn in December, supporting our view that corporate investors have not been deterred by weakening growth
A social dividend
Not so long ago, adventurous tourists would only take carefully organised tours of the favelas that are perched in the hills of southern Rio de Janeiro. Now increasing numbers are actually spending their holidays there.
Our outlook for 2013
We identify six tailwinds and three headwinds for Brazil in 2013
Mixed messages
Government policy has helped the consumer electronics industry take off but the administration is failing to get its pro-business message across.
Where did the investment go?
Local commentators debate the government’s problematic relations with business.
Dealing with the growth trap
The package of stimuli being injected into the Brazilian economy is growing: tax cuts, credit subsidies, cheaper energy, a radical programme of private sector concessions in infrastructure and – to cap it all – nominal interest rates at record lows.
