14 February 2013Download report
January data from our consumer survey shows a hesitant start to 2013, but several key indices remain at high levels.
Increased royalties and new local content requirements are under discussion in Brasília. The process echoes the complexities in reforming oil royalties, although we see several factors pointing to a smoother resolution.
Draft legislation could loosen the grip of informal security businesses, and grant judicial certainty to foreign investors. Yet much would depend on implementation.
There is little evidence of a generalised rise in crime, although attacks in São Paulo – and the displacement of gangs to the north-east – present serious challenges to the authorities.
Changes to the concessions model reflect pragmatic government thinking, but some details still need defining.
Named to head the Planning and Logistics Company (EPL) last September, Bernardo Figueiredo is very much in charge of executing President Dilma Rousseff’s vision.
Bulls and Bears
In each of the past six months, inflation figures have exceeded expectations. The market still seems to be giving the central bank another chance.
In a further sign that the presidential campaign may be beginning, the president will visit three north-eastern states, shortly after detailing her legislative agenda for 2013.
Best of local comment
The 4Q results have made a impact on debate in Brazil, leading to a strong consensus that the state-controlled oil company is overburdened and underfinanced.
Despite persistent rumours to the contrary, the consensus among commentators is that finance minister Guido Mantega will remain in his post.
Local commentators debate whether amended terms for infrastructure concessions will lead to an improved response from foreign investors.